= GOP lie: 650,000 American jobs lost!
Sean Lewis
January 18, 2011
The CBO states that because of Healthcare reform people no longer
must remain at jobs so they can have affordable healthcare.
Americans may now downsize or out right leave jobs they continued
to work because healthcare insurance was to expensive to afford.
The GOP spins the half truth of 650,000 American jobs will be 'lost'
as a result of healthcare reform.
This is actually 650,000 jobs now available for entry level positions
for the unemployed being exited by Americans who are retiring now
because they can afford to!
FACT CHECK: Shaky health care job loss estimate
By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR, Associated Press
Tue Jan 18, 7:11 am ET
WASHINGTON – Republicans pushing to repeal President Barack Obama's
health care overhaul warn that 650,000 jobs will be lost if the law is
allowed to stand.
But the widely cited estimate by House GOP leaders is shaky. It's the
latest creative use of statistics in the health care debate, which has
seen plenty of examples from both sides.
Republicans are calling their thumbs-down legislation the "Repealing
the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act." Postponed after the mass
shootings in Tucson, a House vote on the divisive issue is now
expected Wednesday, although Democrats promise they'll block repeal in
the Senate.
A recent report by House GOP leaders says "independent analyses have
determined that the health care law will cause significant job losses
for the U.S. economy."
It cites the 650,000 lost jobs as Exhibit A, and the nonpartisan
Congressional Budget Office as the source of the original analysis
behind that estimate.
But the budget office, which referees the costs and consequences of
legislation, never produced the number.
What follows is a story of how statistics get used and abused in
Washington.
What CBO actually said is that the impact of the health care law on
supply and demand for labor would be small. Most of it would come from
people who no longer have to work, or can downshift to less demanding
employment, because insurance will be available outside the job.
"The legislation, on net, will reduce the amount of labor used in the
economy by a small amount _roughly half a percent_ primarily by
reducing the amount of labor that workers choose to supply," budget
office number crunchers said in a report from last year.
That's not how it got translated in the new report from Speaker John
Boehner, R-Ohio, and other top Republicans.
CBO "has determined that the law will reduce the 'amount of labor used
in the economy by.roughly half a percent.,' an estimate that adds up
to roughly 650,000 jobs lost," the GOP version said.
Gone was the caveat that the impact would be small, mainly due to
people working less. Added was the estimate of 650,000 jobs lost.
The Republican translation doesn't track, said economist Paul Fronstin
of the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute. "People
voluntarily working less isn't the same as employers cutting jobs," he
explained.
For example, CBO said some people might decide to retire earlier
because it would be easier to get health care, instead of waiting
until they become eligible for Medicare at age 65.
The law "reduces the amount of labor supplied, but it's not reducing
the ability of people to find jobs, which is what the job-killing
slogan is intended to convey," said economist Paul Van de Water of the
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The center advocates for low-
income people, and supports the health care law.
In theory, any legislation that increases costs for employers can lead
to job loss. But with the health care law, companies can also decide
to pass on added costs to their workers, as some have already done
this year.
To put things in perspective, there are currently about 131 million
jobs in the economy. CBO projects that unemployment will be
significantly lower in 2014, when the law's major coverage expansion
starts.
A spokeswoman for House Ways and Means Committee Republicans pointed
out that CBO's report did flag that some employers would cut hiring.
"The CBO analysis does not claim that the entire response is people
exiting the labor market," said Michelle Dimarob.
The law's penalties on employers who don't provide health insurance
might cause some companies to hire fewer low-wage workers, or to hire
more part-timers instead of full-time employees, the budget office
said. But the main consequence would still be from more people
choosing not to work.
That still doesn't answer the question of how Republicans came up with
the estimate of 650,000 lost jobs.
Dimarob said staffers took the 131 million jobs and multiplied that by
half a percent, the number from the CBO analysis. The result: 650,000
jobs feared to be in jeopardy.
"For ordinary Americans who could fall into that half a percent, that
is a vitally important stat, and it is reasonable to suggest they
would not characterize the effect as small," she said.
But Fronstin said that approach is also questionable, since the budget
office and the GOP staffers used different yardsticks to measure
overall jobs and hours worked. The differences would have to be
adjusted first in order to produce an accurate estimate.
Said Van de Water, "The number doesn't mean what they say it means."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110118/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_repeal_fact_check
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