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Trouble in Bahrain: symptoms of a wider malaise
Record-breaking demonstrations and spontaneous outbreaks of violence in conservative Bahrain provide an illustrative example of wider tensions in the Middle East * The tensions being voiced, from religious conservatives and liberal reformers, are mutually exclusive and leave little room for a middle ground to be found * As newly reinvigorated authoritarian regimes in the Middle East battle it out with Washington over democratic reform, it looks as though the only progress being made is by the Islamists
[Jane's Islamic Affairs Analyst - first posted to http://jiaa.janes.com - 30 January 2006]
Ahmadiyya under fire
Ahmadiyya has experienced an increase in repression in South and Southeast Asia over recent years * Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan have been the most active in preventing the movement from functioning freely * As the number of Ahmadi followers grows, this situation will worsen and could become more violent
[Jane's Islamic Affairs Analyst - first posted to http://jiaa.janes.com - 30 January 2006]
Iran's conventional forces remain key to deterring potential threats
Key Points * Iran's Western-influenced defence doctrine is focused on conventional forces and incorporates lessons learned from a range of post-Cold War conflicts. * Layered aerial and coastal defences make Iran a potentially prickly opponent and would require the US or Israel to invest considerable resources in offensive options. * The overstretched and exhausted US military will require a period of strategic reset if it is to undertake effective operations against Iran.
[Jane's Intelligence Review - first posted to http://jir.janes.com - 19 January 2006]
Russia boosts counterinsurgency efforts in North Caucasus
Key Points * The repeated failures of Russia's counterinsurgency strategy have finally forced a doctrinal rethink. * Increases in special forces capabilities, which suggest that counterinsurgency operations have been stepped up in the run-up to 2008's presidential elections, do not augur well for the future of negotiations. * Although Moscow is confident that the growing intensity of counterinsurgency operations in the region will ultimately secure its victory in Chechnya, rebels have now shifted some of their activity to the regions of Dagestan, Ingushetia and Karabardino-Balkaria.
[Jane's Intelligence Review - first posted to http://jir.janes.com - 19 January 2006]
Organised crime gangs pose threat to Cuban development
Key Points * Cuba is already an important trafficking transhipment point for drugs from Latin America and it is unable to control its waters and air space effectively. * It is experiencing a rise in domestic crime and drug use, and with it the first signs of organised criminal operations. * Cuban emigre gangs are a significant force in the North American underworld, especially but not exclusively involved in mid-level trafficking of cocaine to street gangs and retail sellers.
[Jane's Intelligence Review - first posted to http://jir.janes.com - 19 January 2006]
Venezuela's oil for friends deal
Not content with using his country's vast oil wealth to buoy support for his administration, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is now extending this strategy to international relations, in an effort to export his Bolivarian Revolution throughout the region. * This oil diplomacy has been directed largely against the US, as Chavez attempts to create a regional bloc to back his anti-US stance and forge links with China, Iran and India. * However, Chavez's oil-based alliances are not deep-rooted and the lack of any real ideological affinity means that his oil friends would distance themselves at any serious sign of US displeasure, or a fall in oil prices.
[Jane's Foreign Report - first posted to http://frp.janes.com - 10 February 2006]
Scandal stuns Czech security service
Serious concerns are being raised over the reliability of the Czech security services following the surprise resignation of one of the country's most senior officials. JID's central European correspondent reports from Prague.
[Jane's Intelligence Digest - first posted to http://jid.janes.com - 15 February 2006]
Clinton 1998 wagging finger: "I did not have sex with that woman!"
Bush 2005 wagging finger: "I did nothing illegal!"
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